Disagreement between Baku and Ashgabat on the ownership of hydrocarbon deposits in the Caspian shelf makes us take a fresh look at the efforts of the European Union, which is desperately promoting the Trans-Caspian pipeline. The Europeans are sure that they can persuade Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to implement the realization of this mega-project as an ordinary business.
EU Ambassador to Azerbaijan Roland Kobia explicitly stated in an interview with VK that "Trans-Caspian pipeline is a commercial matter, not political one, and it applies only to countries that want to implement it." The rhetoric of the EU is based on the claim that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are two sovereign countries and have a right to decide if to create this facility or not.
Commission members’ trips to both capitals, but, above all, to Ashgabat are designed to influence the Turkmen authorities in terms of their compliancy with the Azerbaijani side on the same contentious issues which generally inhibit the negotiations of determining the legal status of the Caspian Sea.
Azerbaijan actively cooperates with Europe in energy sector and actually tends to prove its commitment to provide energy security of the EU. However, the calculation is based on the resources of Azerbaijan, which is going to significantly increase its gas production capacity in the next 5-7 years. As for creating Trans-Caspian pipeline and getting involved in gas supplies to Europe for Turkmenistan, the issue is not so simple.
Baku does not believe that Trans-Caspian pipeline which is proposed in order to transport Turkmen gas to Europe will be constructed in the near future; Azerbaijan is not interested in investing in this project. Such a statement was made last month by the Azerbaijani Industry and Energy Minister Natig Aliyev. "I do not think that the Trans-Caspian pipeline will be constructed in the near future. Who will construct it? Azerbaijan is not interested in this project, so either Turkmenistan or European companies should do it", - the minister told the reporters.
Trans-Caspian gas pipeline of not less than 400 km will be laid from the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. There it can be connected to the existing pipeline infrastructure and, in particular, to "Southern Gas Corridor" which is being created by Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey,
At the same time, given the existing export potential of Azerbaijan, for Baku at the moment it is not so important to create Trans-Caspian pipeline, let alone the forcing of its construction. Azerbaijan does not intend in any case to upset relations with Russia and Iran, and it does not accept the rhetoric of the Europeans as the final and the only true one.
Speaking on the export potential of Azerbaijan, Natik Aliyev has noted that the country plans to increase its annual gas supplies to more than 30 billion cubic meters by 2030. According to him, the export of gas to be increased even up to 50 billion cubic meters. "I think if our programs can be successfully implemented... in 2030 we will be able to export over 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year," - Aliyev said. According to him, only in the second phase of the development of the field "Shah Deniz" Azerbaijan will be able to extract 30 billion cubic meters of gas. He added that the country is able to increase production at the expense of other fields.
The negotiations of Turkmenistan with the EU and other countries on the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline are underway since the late 1990s. There are not any direct arrangements for the implementation of this project yet. However, in September 2011, the European Union gave a mandate to start negotiations on the preparation of an agreement between the EU, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on the Trans-Caspian project to the European Commission; after that the process of negotiations began. The main obstacle to the implementation of the project is the unresolved legal status of the Caspian Sea. This argument is used by Russia and Iran in opposing the project. Another argument against it is the environmental risks that will supposedly arise in the case of laying pipe in a seismically active area of the sea with its active mud volcanoes.
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