Daily trading of currencies: Submit growing.

EUR / USD intraday: increasingly offer.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 1.2975

Our preference: Long positions above 1.2975 with targets at 1.305 and 1.309.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.2975 look for further downside with 1.293 and 1.2855 as targets.

Comment: the RSI supports further ascent.


GBP / USD intraday: increasingly offer.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 1.6125

Our preference: Long positions above 1.6125 with targets at 1.621 and 1.6245.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.6125 look for further downside with 1.61 and 1.6065 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to rackets on the ascent.


USD / JPY intraday: under pressure.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 77.75

Our preference: Short positions long maturity under 77.75 with targets at 77.3 and 77 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 77.75 look for further upside with 78 and 78.15 as targets.

Comment: the RSI Homokhtlt with bias to speculate on the landing.


EUR / JPY intraday: increasingly offer.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 100.50

Our preference: Long positions at 100.57 with targets at 101.4 and 101.75.

Alternative scenario: Under 100.5 look for further downside with 100.25 and 99.75 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is on the ascent and rackets calls rising.


GBP / JPY intraday: increasingly offer.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 124.90

Our preference: Long positions above 124.9 with targets at 125.8 and 126.15.

Alternative scenario: Under 124.9 look for further downside with 124.65 and 124.35 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is on the ascent and rackets calls rising.


AUD / USD intraday: rising.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 1.0495

Our preference: Long positions above 1.0495 with targets at 1.06 and 1.065.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.0495 look for further downside with 1.0455 and 1.042 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is on the ascent and rackets calls rising.


Cac 40 Sep 12 in intraday: targeted 3500.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 3600.

Our preference: Short positions long maturity under 3600 with targets at 3500 and 3455 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 3600 look for further upside with 3640 and 3675 targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for t.


Dax Sep 12 in intraday: targeted 7290.

Pivot (level of cancellation): 7500.

Our preference: Short positions long maturity under 7500 with targets at 7290 and 7240 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 7500 look for further upside with 7600 and 7700 targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for t

Experts: crisis will adversely affect the economy of Germany during 2013

Berlin, September 13 / September (EFE): Institute of Economic Research said the German city of Halle The crisis in the euro zone will continue their negative impact on growth in Germany, the region's strongest economy, over the next year.
Institute predicted that the record German GDP growth of as much as 0.9% this year - compared to 1.3% as indicated by initial estimates - and by 0.8% during 2013, much less than the 2.2% rate in the previous forecast.
Justifying the Institute of Economic Studies estimates that the new debt crisis in the euro zone and the deadlock in the global economy Saarqlan growing Germany, despite the fact that the economic indicators of the country European generally positive.
He pointed out that the causes of the economic slowdown expected for Germany is to double the growth of the global economy and reduced demand on the part of the euro zone for German goods.
The Institute also confirmed that the sovereign debt purchase program announced by the European Central Bank could help reduce the costs of financing the southern euro zone countries and calm the markets, but stressed that this would not be a solution to the crisis. (EFE) 

Varies dollar against its major counterparts amid anticipation the results of the Fed meeting

Forex Pros - The dollar traded against major currencies between higher as investors remained cautious ahead of comments Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke later in the day.


During European afternoon, the dollar fell against the euro, with EUR / USD shedding 0.07% to hit 1.2909.

Market awaits the results of the Fed meeting policy later on Thursday, amid speculation that the U.S. central bank may implement a third round of quantitative easing.

Ruling paved the way for German president to ratify the European Stability Facility certain circumstances, allowing the ECB to buy bonds and move forward.

The German court said that the amount allocated to the facility must not exceed 190 billion euros, without the consent of the House of Representatives in Parliament, and said that it should remain the People's Assembly and the Shura informed of Belkrarat the Financial Stability Facility.

At the same time, the market sentiment remained supported after the approval of the Constitutional Court in Germany on the country's participation in the bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism in the euro zone.

Rome sold at an auction of government bonds to three Aaum worth 4 billion Ao'rour against average yield of 2.75% down from 4.65% in August and the lowest price since October 2010.

Italy sold bonds maturity of $ 1.5 billion euros of debt for five years by 3.71% and bond auction of the debt owed $ 1.5 billion Aaurero in 2026 increased by 5.32%, this year.

At the same time, little changed on the dollar against the pound, with the survival of the GBP / unchanged to trade at 1.6107.

Elsewhere, the dollar fell against the yen, with USD / JPY dropped 0.25% to hit 77.66, and rose against the Swiss franc, with the rise in the dollar / franc rose 0.2% to trade at 0.9391.

Earlier in the day, the Swiss National Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in September and reaffirmed its commitment to a minimum exchange rate at 1.20 francs to the euro.

Separately, official data showed that producer price inflation in Switzerland rose unexpectedly in August, down 0.5% after a decline of 0.3% in the previous month.

Analysts had expected inflation to fall in producer prices rose 0.4%.

At the same time, it was trading dollar mixed against its Canadian, Australian and New Zealand counterparts, with USD / CAD shedding 0.08% to hit 0.9754, and dropped Australian / U.S. dollar by 0.17% to hit 1.0447, the high NZD / USD rose 0.3% to trade at higher 0.8235.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 2.50%, in a move that had been expected widely.

Commenting on the decision, said the RBNZ Alan Bollard head there was a great need to raise borrowing costs until the second half of 2013 due to the risks arising from the financial crisis in the euro zone and expectations of New Zealand's trading partners, including China.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.07%, trading at 79.83.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on inflation
Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on inflation later in the day the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement, followed by remarks Board Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Gold is trading in a narrow range amid expectations for a monetary stimulus tour

Forex Pros - Gold futures traded in a narrow trading on Thursday morning as investors awaited the outcome of a meeting of the Central Bank amid expectations for new stimulus measures work.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the futures trading of gold for October delivery at 730.15, $ 1 per ounce during European morning trade, shedding 0.05% dilution.
Prices traded in a narrow range at 1, 728.85 dollars an ounce, the lowest price for the day and the highest price for the session at 732.95, $ 1 per ounce for ounce.
Gold rose at 746.55, $ 1 an ounce on Wednesday, its highest price since February 29.

Gold prices were likely to find support at 688.85, $ 1 per ounce, the lowest price since 6 September and near-term resistance at at 761.85, 1, the highest price since $ 21 February.

Market awaits the results of the Fed meeting policy later on Thursday, amid speculation that the U.S. central bank may implement a third round of quantitative easing.

Ruling paved the way for German president to ratify the European Stability Facility certain circumstances, allowing the ECB to buy bonds and move forward.

The German court said that the amount allocated to the facility must not exceed 190 billion euros, without the consent of the House of Representatives in Parliament, and said that it should remain the People's Assembly and the Shura informed of Belkrarat the Financial Stability Facility.
And track movements in the price of gold this year largely transform expectations about whether the U.S. central bank to pump more money into the financial system.

The dollar extended losses after Moody's warned of evaluations on Tuesday it might reduce the rating to a trio if negotiations did not result in budget year 2013 measures to help reduce the country's public debt. .

And track the movements in the price of gold this year largely transform expectations about whether the U.S. central bank will pump more money into the financial system.

Gold rose 15% in earlier this year to record USD1, 790 dollars an ounce after announcing that the Federal Reserve in January it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, referring to the possibility of a second round a new round of purchases assets.

However, prices fell by 5% in prices since late February, while the Fed failed to achieve more and easing amid fears of a worsening debt crisis in the euro zone, which has fueled demand for the precious metal, and the U.S. dollar.

Gold prices often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, where the gold becomes less expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery fell 0.7% to trade at 33.06 dollars a Ansh, while copper fell for December delivery rose 0.35% to trade at 3.679 Dolarlertal.

Dollar / yen fall after jobless data

Forex Pros - The dollar fell to its lowest level in seven months against the yen after U.S. data on unemployment disappointing as investors awaited a meeting of the Central Bank later in the day.
.

USD / JPY 77.56 during early European afternoon, the pair's lowest since February 14, the pair subsequently consolidated at 77.57, down 0.36%.

The pair was likely to find support at 77.56, the lowest price of the course and resistance at 77.96, Wednesday's high.

The Labor Department said that the number of U.S. individuals who filed for initial jobless benefits in the week ending September 8, rose by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 to 382,000, compared with expectations of an increase of 3,000 to 370,000.

Figure has been modified in the previous week to reach 367.000 from 365,000 previously reported.

A separate report showed that producer prices in the U.S. rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in August, compared to expectations of 1.1% increase, after rising 0.3% in July.

The data came market awaits the results of the Fed meeting policy later on Thursday, amid speculation that the U.S. central bank may implement a third round of quantitative easing.

The yen also rose against the euro with EUR / JPY gaining 0.38%, to a record 100.06.

Rome sold at an auction of government bonds to three Aaum worth 4 billion Ao'rour against average yield of 2.75% down from 4.65% in August and the lowest price since October 2010.

Italy sold bonds maturity of $ 1.5 billion euros of debt for five years by 3.71% and bond auction of the debt owed $ 1.5 billion Aaurero in 2026 increased by 5.32%, this year.

Euro / Dollar up ahead of a new round of monetary stimulus

Forex Pros - The euro rose against the U.S. dollar, before falling back, after the Fed announced Aalvedrala a new round of stimulus to support a slowing economy.

EUR / USD hit 1.2961, the highest price for the day after the announcement, but at the time the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2906, up 0.06%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2816, the lowest price since September 12 and resistance at 1.3006, the highest price since May 9. The Open Market Committee buy $ 40 billion of mortgage loans monthly in an effort to support the real estate market
Market awaits the results of the Fed meeting policy later on Thursday, amid speculation that the U.S. central bank may implement a third round of quantitative easing.

The Labor Department said that the number of U.S. individuals who filed for unemployment benefits market awaits the results of the Fed meeting policy later on Thursday, amid speculation that the U.S. central bank may implement a third round of quantitative easing.

Ruling paved the way for the President to repel German * Ik on the European Stability Facility certain circumstances, allowing the ECB to buy bonds and move forward.

The German court said that the amount allocated to the facility must not exceed 190 billion euros, without the consent of the House of Representatives in Parliament, and said that it should remain the People's Assembly and the Shura informed of Belkrarat the Financial Stability Facility.

At the same time, the market sentiment remained supported after the approval of the Constitutional Court in Germany on the country's participation in the bailout fund, and a stability mechanism eurozone Alawrobive.
Rome sold at an auction of government bonds to three Aaum worth 4 billion Ao'rour against average yield of 2.75% down from 4.65% in August and the lowest price since October 2010.

Italy sold bonds maturity of $ 1.5 billion euros of debt for five years by 3.71% and bond auction of the debt owed $ 1.5 billion Aaurero in 2026 increased by 5.32%, this year.


Elsewhere, the euro was steady against the pound with EUR / GBP gaining 0.04% to hit 0.8013.

In other news Thursday, the data revealed that producer prices in the United States rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in August, compared to expectations of 1.1% increase, after rising 0.3% in July.

Futures for crude oil rose during the European session

Forexpros - futures for crude oil rose during the European session on Friday.
According to the New York Mercantile Exchange, contracts were trading crude oil futures in October at USD99.61 a barrel time of writing, up 1.32%.
I have already been trading on a session high USD100.42 a barrel. Crude oil may find support at USD95.41 points and resistance at USD100.42.
U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.43% to trade him to USD79.05.
At the same time on the NYMEX, the price of Brent oil for November by 1.14% to be traded at USD117.20 a barrel, while the points difference (spread) between Brent oil and crude oil stood at USD17.59 a barrel.

Gold futures rose during the European session

Forexpros - Gold futures rose during the European session on Friday.
By Comex rating on the New York Mercantile Exchange, has trade gold futures in October on USD1774.85 an ounce at the time of writing the news, up 0.30%.
I have already been trading on a session high USD1777.55 an ounce. Gold may find support at USD1705.55 points and resistance at USD1777.55.
U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.48% to trade him to USD79.01.
At the same time on the Comex, silver price rose for the month of December increased by 0.01% to be traded on the USD34.780 ounce while the price of copper for December rose 3.32% to be traded at USD3.833 a pound.

Futures for natural gas rose during the European session

Forexpros - futures for natural gas rose during the European session on Friday.

According to the New York Mercantile Exchange, futures contracts were trading of natural gas in October at USD3.046 per million British thermal units the time of writing, up 0.30%.

I have already been trading on a session high USD3.053 per million British thermal units. Natural gas may find support at USD2.655 points and resistance at USD3.071.

U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.24% to trade him to USD79.19.

At the same time on the NYMEX, the price of crude oil for October rose 1.44% to be traded at USD99.72 a barrel, while the price of heating oil for October rose 1.17% to be traded on the USD3.2489 per gallon.

Commodities MARKET CURRENTS

8:40 AM Golden Minerals (AUMN) -15.9% premarket after announcing an underwriting agreement to sell nearly 5.5M units at $5.75 each. Net proceeds will be used to continue further development and expansion of its Velardena Operations in Mexico, and for working capital and other general corporate purposes.

8:29 AM Tacking on $2 since the Fed's QE announcement, WTI crude is back in triple digits and hopes from 10 weeks ago of gasoline below $3 gallon give way to worries of the price popping through $4. What Fed stimulus gives on one hand, it takes away with another (good luck getting them to admit it!). USO +1.6% premarket

8:29 AM Rio Tinto (RIO) is pushing ahead with expansion of its mineral sands operations, holding to plans to invest C$800M over five years to extend the life of its Lac Tio ilmenite mine in Quebec and overhaul a titanium dioxide smelter in the Canadian province. RIO +4.2% premarket.

7:44 AM Gold bugs hoping to wake up to $1,800/oz. will be disappointed as the metal fails to follow through thus far on its big Fed-induced rally. At $1,772, gold is about unchanged on the session and remains right at its 2012 high. 

Growing, 15.30% Dividend Payer New York Mortgage Trust Inc. Looks Set To Profit

New York Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYMT) is a mortgage REIT that pays one of the best dividends in the business at 15.30%. Its chart below contains multi-family commercial real estate investments, agency interest only (IO) RMBS, and agency RMBS. Its legacy investments include residential securitized loans, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and distressed residential loans.

On Thursday September 13, 2012, the Fed announced that it is beginning a new QE program of buying $40B in MBS per month. This is in addition to Operation Twist, which will still run until the end of 2012. The new QE program is open-ended. The Fed can and may put any length on it and almost any value to the amount of buying. It has said it will assess the program as it goes along. This may put more pressure on many of the other mortgage backed securities REITs. They specialize mostly in agency RMBS, which have already low interest rate spreads between the yields and the cost of funds through repo's. NYMT instead specializes in a more diverse group of MBS investments. A chart showing the chart below from NYMT's core investments is below.

As you can see, the returns from the CMBS and the Midway Residential Mortgage Portfolio are the highest. NYMT specializes in multi-family CMBS, these are being pushed up now by the historically low levels of single home ownership currently. This not only makes them a good investment. It makes them safer than they might otherwise be. The chart below shows the investment portfolio spread. As you can see, the spread is much wider than the 1.5%-2.7% spreads that most other mortgage REITs operate with.

The most recent spread in Q2 2012 was 5.95%, which is more than double the spread of most of the primarily agency RMBS mortgage REITs. The constant prepayment rates are a bit higher than normal too (bad), but only slightly higher (see chart below).

Add caption

In 2012 the company received money from public offerings in May ($20 million), June ($33 million), and more recently in August ($75 million). In some cases the company took its time putting this money to work. It waited for appropriate opportunities. This meant that the Q2 results were not quite as good as they might have been. However, it also means that the $108.2 million acquired in Q3 should help to boost total earnings. However, it may be a slight drag on earnings per share, as it has been / will be invested at appropriate opportunities in Q3. Still it should overall help the company keep growing.

NYMT is trying new directions. In May 2012, it completed its first multi-family CMBS re-securitization. This resulted in $26 million in net proceeds of a permanent financing of $47 million of securities deposited into a trust. Those were issued on a bond equivalent yield of 9.5%, which is significantly less than NYMT's own dividend. This created a net equity position of $21 million with a return of approximately 18% with very low risk. The company may do more of these in the future. They are a promising new avenue of investment.

The table below from the NYMT's Form 10-Q shows the approximate break out of NYMT's assets

You can easily see that the company is growing quickly. This should in time translate into increased earnings and profits for its unitholders/shareholders. Unfortunately there have been some events that have been negative for the mortgage REIT business, especially the narrowing of the spreads between cost of funds and earnings on those funds. Still all mortgage REITs are experiencing these difficulties to varying degrees. NYMT seems to be adopting to the differing conditions, and it seems set to prosper. Plus it is growing through new offerings. This is drawing some attention from institutional investors. They have purchased an added 145,659 shares (+2.09%) from the previous quarter to this quarter. This is a good sign. They are generally very savvy investors.

At the end of Q2 2012 NYMT had a book value per share of chart below. This was up from the previous quarter's value of $6.49. I doubt there will be a big jump in Q3, but subsequent quarters may see better appreciation. Given this, I don't expect the stock price to appreciate much in the near term. The last stock offering was for $6.73 just a month ago in August 2012. However, the company is expanding, which is good for a micro cap company of only $159.16 million in market cap. You need to have a certain size to operate effectively in this environment. Plus NYMT is expanding its menu of lucrative investments in order to deal effectively with the changing environment. It should be able to continue its great distributions; and its current 15.30% distribution/dividend is already one of the best in the industry.

The five year chart of NYMT gives some technical direction to this trade

The slow stochastic sub chart shows that NYMT is near overbought levels. The main chart shows that it has been in a consolidation phase since late 2009. With its new growth in investor monies, it seems more likely to be able to break out to the high side than to the low side. The new investment strategies should help too. I would tend to buy NYMT for its dividend/distribution. It is small, but it seems well managed. Plus the multi-family real estate market should be a good place to be for the next few years. New apartment complexes that are built should only serve to drag up the value of the old ones. The tightness in the market due to all the people who have recently moved out of their homes should help too. I am optimistic about NYMT's prospects, and I am not the only one. NYMT has a mean analysts' recommendation of 1.8 (a buy) and a five star CAPS rating. It trades at a quite reasonable PE of 10.19.

If you think you like this kind of investment, you may also wish to look at American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO), and Apollo Residential Mortgage Inc. (AMTG).

Today's oil price

$99.95 per barrel

Daily change of 1.64 ( 1.67% )

Oil Quote Updated Sep-14-12 7:30 AM