Crude oil rose to as high as 98.29 last week and met mentioned target of 61.8% retracement of 110.55 to 77.28 at 97.84. A short term top could be formed there on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Note another rally remains in favor as long as 92.94 support holds. Above 98.29 will turn bias back to the upside for 100 and above. However, rise from 77.28 could be the fourth leg inside the triangle patter from 114.83. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping between 100 and 110. Meanwhile, break of 92.94 will be the first signal of reversal and turn focus to 86.92 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed either a three wave consolidation pattern that's completed at 77.28, or a five wave triangle pattern that's still unfolding. In any case, break of 110.55 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. While another fall could be seen before an eventual upside breakout, downside should be contained above 77.28 support.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
No comments:
Post a Comment